Pavel Latushko, one of the leading figures of the Belarusian opposition, former Minister of Culture under the Lukashenko regime, and former Ambassador to France says it is crucial that Georgia not repeat Belarus’ mistakes. Today, he is wanted by the Lukashenko regime on charges of “attempting to seize power,” alongside Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. If he were to return to Belarus, Latushko would face an 18-year prison sentence. He currently serves as the representative for foreign affairs of the Belarusian democratic forces in exile.
In an interview with Radio Free Europe’s Georgian Service, Latushko draws stark parallels between today’s Georgia and Belarus in 2020, describes life under a regime where even a single “Facebook like” can land you in prison, and warns that Georgia is on track to share Belarus’s fate — unless it acts now. Vazha Tavberidze spoke to him in Strasbourg during the spring session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
Many observers are drawing parallels between what happened and is still happening in Belarus, and the current situation in Georgia. How justified do you think those comparisons are?
I think the developments in Georgia could very well follow the same scenario as in Belarus. We’re already seeing some familiar patterns.
Over the past four and a half years, more than 600,000 Belarusians have been forced to leave the country. The reason is the atmosphere of fear, terror, and repression cultivated by the Lukashenko regime, especially since 2020. People are not leaving by choice. And the regime doesn’t stop at the border: it continues to persecute them even abroad.
In the geopolitical context, we have to understand that Russia has set itself a goal: the de facto restoration of the Soviet Union. The methods may vary, but the strategic objective is clear. This is evident in the aggression against Ukraine, which refused to bow to Moscow and is paying a heavy price for that decision.
Belarus plays a key role in this strategy. Lukashenko is a pro-Kremlin leader who has always dreamed of making it big in the Kremlin, but he has been outplayed and, as a result, Belarus is now fully dependent on Russia. Yes, formally the country exists, it’s on the map, it’s a member of the UN. But its internal sovereignty is limited, its external sovereignty has been lost, and its military sovereignty has been liquidated. That’s the reality of today’s Belarus.
And in Georgia, we also see the influence of pro-Russian forces. Moldova lives under constant threat of interference. Armenia could easily be the next target. I am certain that Kazakhstan is also at risk. If a country fails to build an effective strategy of resistance, then it will face a scenario like Belarus or Georgia, or perhaps even worse.
But what do you do in countries like Belarus or Georgia, where society is told “either you’re with us, or you are with the West and then it’s war”? Will the EU, which is not a “hardcore” geopolitical player, really intervene?
If Georgians want a glimpse of their potential future, they should look at Belarus. As I mentioned, our internal sovereignty is partially lost, our external sovereignty is completely lost, and our military has been sold off, rented out, pawned. Lukashenko supports the war against Ukraine not for Belarus’s interests, but for the Kremlin’s.
How do we resist? There are different tools. In Belarus’s case, sanctions. Strong, crushing sanctions. Sanctions that don’t just apply pressure but knock the regime off its feet. International justice mechanisms are also key. We’ve been fighting for five years to launch proceedings in the International Criminal Court, to invoke universal jurisdiction. Because when a criminal remains in power with impunity, people lose faith in democracy.
Georgia, as I see it, is currently in the 2020 phase that Belarus went through. It’s crucial not to repeat our mistakes. You must not stop. Every day, the regime grows stronger, through repression, fear, and apathy.
You still have freedom of speech, opposition parties, independent media. We no longer do. All opposition structures have been dismantled, the media operates from abroad and has been declared extremist. Watching it is a criminal offense. We live in totalitarianism. And if nothing changes, Georgia will find itself in the same place.
Was there a moment in 2020 when things in Belarus could have turned out differently? When change was within reach?
I don’t shy away from responsibility. Perhaps we should have been braver, more decisive. We stopped one step short of the finish line. Do you remember when Lukashenko was running around with a rifle, without a magazine, while a plane waited on standby? That was our chance. We should have surrounded his palace and seen it through to the end.
The second chance came at the start of the war, but then Lukashenko didn’t make the mistake, he didn’t send the army into Ukraine- not out of sympathy, but because, according to KGB intel, 40% of troops were ready to disobey the order. That could’ve caused a split in the army and a new power crisis. He understood that. And of course, he also knew he could count on Russia.
And now? What’s your strategy for shaking his regime?
The situation is much more difficult now. But I remain optimistic. We have to use every legal instrument available. The elites must get a clear signal: support Lukashenko and you’re heading for The Hague. The first arrest warrant must be issued for him personally. His place is before an international tribunal, for aggression, for the deportation of Ukrainian children, for crimes against humanity in Belarus.
It won’t bring immediate results, but it will start to shake the foundations. Sanctions must target the regime’s economic base. But at the same time, we must not isolate society. Belarus must not become another North Korea. We have to maintain communication channels and support independent media. Russian propaganda is actively trying to reshape Belarusian identity, and that’s something we must resist at all costs.
In your view, how close are Belarusians to accepting a “union” with Russia if Putin and Lukashenko declare it?
This is where sociology matters. Over the last four years, 96–97% of Belarusians consistently express a desire to live in an independent state.
But how far are they willing to go to ensure that state remains independent?
That’s a question of motivation. Our task is to give people the motivation to fight for independence. But today, it’s impossible to take to the streets. Even a “like” on the wrong post can land you in prison. The public lives in a state of anticipation, anger, apathy, and withdrawal from political life.
And if Lukashnko says there’s no other choice, only unification with Russia?
Society would vote against it. He would have to falsify the results on a massive scale. But this is no longer about handing himself another term; this is a question of historic proportions, a matter of national survival. And the people understand that.
What if he tries to go ahead without a referendum?
He’d still have to change the Constitution. And that requires a referendum. Of course, Lukashenko isn’t eternal. But building a strategy around the idea that “one day he’ll just go” is a mistake. We don’t stop. Our team has been working 24/7 for over four and a half years without a single day off.
We must be ready for a transition. Like in Poland, through a roundtable, through negotiations among the elites. But Lukashenko himself will never come to the negotiating table. And those around him won’t dare until he’s gone.
And if he is gone?
Then there’s a real opportunity. Any new leader, as long as he’s not pro-Russian, would be a potential window for change; a chance for dialogue with Europe.
I know these people. I’ve been a minister, an ambassador, I’ve spoken to the elites personally. Believe me, they’re all counting the days until he’s gone. They keep their fingers crossed behind their backs. And he knows it. He even recently said: “You’re all just waiting for me to die.” He’s right. Everyone is tired.
Everyone wants a normal life, one without fear, without repression, with the ability to travel to Europe, to build homes, to move forward.
But then we run into the Russia problem. Lukashenko may go, but Russia will remain. And it will want a ‘second Lukashenko.’
Without a doubt. Russia will try to control the situation. But history can create openings. Right now, the regime is cemented. As long as Lukashenko is strong and in control, everything is under lock. But as soon as he weakens or leaves the stage, there’s a chance.
He wants to pass power to his son Nikolai, but that, too, could be a trigger. Yes, the main risk is Moscow. But that’s exactly why we must invest in society. It may sound lofty or abstract, but we have no other path. Only through the people.
Interview by Vazha Tavberidze
